瑞士汇率大波动究竟发生了什么

These are strange and unnerving times in globalfinancial markets, and if Thursday’s jaw-droppingmove in the Swiss currency didn’t prove it, nothingwill.

全球金融市场会经历一些让人不知所措的异常时刻，瑞士货币汇率周四令人瞠目结舌的波动就是最好的证明。

It is not every day that the currency of anadvanced, economically important country rises bydouble-digit percentages against the currencies ofother such countries within mere hours. But that iswhat happened to the Swiss franc on Thursday. It isup 18 percent against the euro as of Thursday morning, and at one point was up 39 percent.Currency strategists were searching for any analogue in modern history for a similarly abruptmove in major Western currency and coming up empty.

一个拥有重要经济地位的发达国家的货币，兑换同类国家货币的汇率，在区区几个小时之内以两位数的百分比上涨，这可不是什么每天都能见到的事。然而在周四，这种情况就发生在了瑞士法郎身上。截至周四上午，瑞士法郎兑欧元汇率上扬了18%，而且曾一度暴涨39%。货币策略师们正在当代历史中寻找主要西方货币陡然大幅升值的相似状况，但一无所获。

The Swiss move offers interesting lessons about the oddly precarious state of the globaleconomy, but first it’s worth working through what exactly the Swiss National Bank has done.

瑞士市场的波动提供了关于全球经济脆弱状况的有趣证明，但首先，我们应该弄清楚瑞士国家银行(SwissNational Bank)究竟做了些什么。

Back during the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, fear was high that banks in countries that use theeuro would go belly up. If you were a company or rich person in a country like Greece or Italy oreven France or Germany, fearful that the euro could go kablooey and your local banks with it,you were sorely tempted to catch a flight to Zurich or Geneva and deposit your money in aSwiss bank. Amid a general atmosphere of global panic, the same could be said of plenty ofsavers outside Europe: Russians, Middle Easterners, Chinese, you name it.

2011年欧债危机期间，对欧元区各国央行可能破产的担忧四起。在希腊、意大利，乃至法国或德国这样的国家，如果你是一家企业的负责人或者一位富人，担心欧元可能把当地的银行一同拖下水，你巴不得能跳上去苏黎世或日内瓦的航班，把钱存进一家瑞士银行。在全球恐慌的大环境下，可以说欧洲之外的储户也是如此：俄罗斯人、中东人、中国人，不一而足。

All those people looking to park money in Switzerland, a country of only 8 million people,created incredible upward pressure on the Swiss franc. From the start of 2010 to mid-2011,the value of the franc rose 44 percent against the euro.

这些人都想要把钱存到瑞士这个仅有800万人口的国家，从而为瑞士法郎构成了难以想象的升值压力。从2010年初到2011年中，瑞士法郎对欧元上涨了44%。

Think about that for a minute. It would be as if dollars in the state of Virginia (with apopulation similar to Switzerland) suddenly were worth 44 percent more than the dollars usedin the rest of the country. Virginians would be wealthier, but it would be a catastrophe forbusinesses in the state. Suddenly their costs would be 44 percent higher, effectively, thanthat of competitors in other states. Tourism would dry up; why go to a Virginia beach when it is44 percent more expensive than a North Carolina beach?

让我们思考一下。这就好比弗吉尼亚州（人口与瑞士相当）的美元价值突然比美国其他地方高出了44%。弗吉尼亚民众是更富有了，但这对于该州的企业来说却是个灾难。与其他州的竞争者相比，它们的成本突然跃升了44%。旅游业会枯竭；弗吉尼亚海滩的消费要比北卡罗来纳州的海滩高出44%，谁还会去那儿呢？

That’s exactly the situation Swiss businesses faced. Swiss watchmakers, pharmaceutical firmsand ski resorts were suffering mightily because a scary global economy made people want topark their money into Swiss banks.

这正是瑞士企业面临的处境。那里的钟表制造商、制药企业和滑雪度假区遭受了重创，就因为可怕的全球经济让人们想要把钱存进瑞士的银行。

The Swiss National Bank came to the rescue. After its earlier efforts to cut interest rates hadn’tdone enough to dampen interest in the franc, it pulled out the big guns, and set a peg,announcing it wouldn’t allow the franc to appreciate such that one franc buys fewer than 1.2euros. They backed it by going onto foreign exchange markets at will and buying euros asnecessary to defend the peg.

瑞士央行在这时挺身而出。早先下调利率的举措未能抑制对瑞士法郎的兴趣之后，它拿出了杀手锏，设定了一个汇率上限，宣布不会允许本国货币任意升值，而是要将汇率保持在1瑞郎士法郎兑换1.2欧元以下。他们到外汇市场大量买入所需要的欧元，从而守住这个上限。

It worked for a long time. But now, the European Central Bank looks to be on the verge of anextensive new effort to try to pump money into the European economy to get it out of itsdoldrums, which is creating downward pressure on the euro. The pressure is particularlypronounced against the dollar, the benchmark of global commerce, which is rising in partbecause of a strong United States economy and plans by the Federal Reserve to raise interestrates.

在很长一段时间内，这种做法起了作用。但是现在，欧洲央行(European Central Bank)似乎即将采取大规模行动，设法为欧洲经济注入资金，使之摆脱低迷。欧洲经济的低迷正在促使欧元下行。在兑换美元——国际贸易的基准货币——的汇率方面，这种压力尤其明显。美元正在升值，这在一定程度上是因为美国经济走强，以及美联储(Federal Reserve)提高利率的计划。

Meanwhile, Russia is a basket case, increasing the desire of Russian oligarchs to avoidexposure to a falling ruble.

与此同时，俄罗斯深陷危机，从而增加了该国寡头规避因卢布不断贬值而带来的风险的意愿。

All that means that the 1.2 euro peg is becoming more and more expensive to defend. And onThursday, the Swiss National Bank, led by Thomas Jordan, basically waved the white flag.

这一切都意味着，坚守1.2的汇率上限需要付出越来越高的代价。到了本周四，由托马斯·约尔丹(ThomasJordan)所领导的瑞士央行基本举了白旗。

In a news release, the bank said that it believed the franc was less overvalued now than it hadbeen when the policy started, so no more peg. “Recently, divergences between the monetarypolicies of the major currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is likely tobecome even more pronounced,” the announcement said.

央行在一则新闻稿中表示，它认为目前瑞士法郎估值过高的程度，比开始实施这项政策时要低，所以无需再坚守汇率上限。“最近，各大货币区在货币政策上的差异已显著增加——这一趋势很可能会更加明显，”文中称。

In other words, this situation is only going to get worse, which means we would be throwingSwiss francs down a money pit if we tried to continue defending the 1.2 currency peg.

换而言之，情况只会越来越糟，这意味着，如果我们试图继续坚守1.2的汇率上限，就相当于把瑞士法郎往无底洞里扔。

The central bank simultaneously cut interest rates, hoping to offset some of the damage inforeign exchange markets. It didn’t work. The Swiss franc-to-euro exchange rate moved backto where it was before the peg was introduced. Shares of major Swiss companies like Nestleplummeted. Exporters in Switzerland (and people thinking of traveling there, such as the globalelite soon heading to Davos for the World Economic Forum) are in for serious sticker shock.

瑞士央行在同一时间降息，希望能冲抵对外汇市场的一些损害。但是没用。瑞士法郎兑欧元的汇率回到了设定这一上限之前的水平。雀巢(Nestle)等瑞士大公司的股价暴跌。瑞士的出口商（以及考虑前往该国的人们，比如很快将奔赴达沃斯出席世界经济论坛[World Economic Forum]的全球精英）会面临严重的“价签休克”。

One can sympathize with the Swiss National Bank as it defended its peg in the face ofmounting potential losses. But the bigger lesson here is this: The six years and counting ofaggressive monetary activism out of major central banks like the Fed and E.C.B. may haverescued the global economy over and over. But it has also created a range of spillovers farbeyond United States and European borders that people all around the world will be grapplingwith for a long time to come.

在面对日益严重的潜在损失时，瑞士央行坚守了它的汇率上限，这一点值得同情。不过，这里有个更大的教训：美联储和欧洲央行等各大央行为期六年而且仍在继续的积极货币政策，或许是多次拯救了全球经济，但是，它所产生的一系列后果，远远超出了美国和欧洲的范畴，而世界各地的人们将需要花很长时间来消化。

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